The World Minerals Outlook for 2029 provides a comprehensive look at the future of critical minerals, including cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium. These minerals are essential for a wide array of industries, including electric vehicles (EVs), electronics, renewable energy storage, and aerospace. As demand for these industries continues to rise, these minerals’ production and outlook will shape global supply chains and influence technological advancement.
Cobalt plays an indispensable role in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage, and consumer electronics. As the global transition to cleaner energy accelerates, the demand for cobalt is forecast to increase significantly. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the leading producer, contributing over 60% of global cobalt production. This places the DRC at the center of global cobalt supply, with smaller contributions from countries like Australia and Russia.
However, cobalt production is fraught with challenges, particularly ethical concerns surrounding mining practices in the DRC, where labor conditions and environmental impacts have sparked international debate. As a result, there are increasing efforts to develop alternative sources of cobalt, including recycling and extraction from secondary sources. By 2029, the cobalt market is expected to be shaped by innovations in mining practices, efforts to source cobalt more sustainably, and the expansion of recycling technologies that can reduce dependence on primary production.
Gallium is a key material used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, solar cells, and LEDs. As the world moves toward more efficient telecommunication networks and renewable energy technologies, gallium's role in electronics, particularly in 5G technology and high-performance computing, is becoming increasingly critical. China holds an overwhelming share of the global gallium market, producing over 87% of the world's gallium. Other producers, such as Germany, South Korea, and Japan, contribute smaller amounts.
Looking toward 2029, gallium demand will continue to rise, driven by technological advancements and the need for high-performance materials in electronics. However, China's dominance in gallium production poses risks to the stability of global supply chains. The reliance on Chinese production could drive other countries to explore local alternatives, including investments in production capacity in places like Canada and Germany. Additionally, efforts to reduce gallium consumption through recycling and alternative materials are expected to gain momentum.
Helium is vital for applications in cryogenics, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), space exploration, and electronics cooling. Its importance in medical technologies, particularly in MRI machines, and in aerospace for cooling equipment, has made it a critical resource. In recent years, the global helium market has been under pressure due to supply shortages and geopolitical factors.
The United States remains the leading producer of helium, contributing around 54% of global supply. Qatar, Russia, and Algeria also play significant roles in helium production. Despite this, helium’s supply has been increasingly threatened by geopolitical tensions, especially in Qatar and Russia, and by the depletion of reserves in the United States. As demand for helium rises, particularly in space exploration and medical imaging, the global supply may struggle to meet the growing need. By 2029, the helium market will likely see a shift as countries invest in new sources of production and explore helium recovery from natural gas reserves to alleviate supply pressures.
Lithium is at the core of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution and is increasingly vital for energy storage systems. Its role in lithium-ion batteries is expected to see massive growth as global demand for EVs and renewable energy solutions expands. Australia leads global lithium production, followed by Chile and China, with Argentina emerging as a significant player in the coming years.
Lithium’s future is tied closely to the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, which will continue to drive demand for the metal. By 2024, major lithium producers such as Australia and Chile will maintain their dominance, while countries like Argentina, Zimbabwe, and Brazil are expected to ramp up production in the coming years. Despite the expanding capacity, the supply of lithium will face challenges due to high extraction costs, environmental concerns, and regulatory hurdles. The increasing importance of recycling lithium from used batteries will become a key strategy to secure supply in the long term. Additionally, innovation in geothermal and brine extraction methods may provide new, more sustainable sources of lithium.
Magnesium is essential in the aerospace, automotive, and electronics industries due to its lightweight properties. Magnesium alloys are crucial in making vehicles lighter, contributing to better fuel efficiency and emissions reductions. The global magnesium market is dominated by China, which produces 85.7% of the world’s magnesium supply, followed by Russia, Israel, and smaller producers.
Magnesium demand is expected to remain steady through 2029, driven by continued growth in the automotive and aerospace sectors. China will continue to dominate the market due to its vast reserves of magnesium and low-cost production capabilities. However, geopolitical risks, including trade tensions, could disrupt global supply chains, leading other countries to invest in domestic production and explore new sources of magnesium. Efforts to develop magnesium recycling technologies and reduce reliance on primary production will also play a role in stabilizing the market.
Palladium is a critical component in automobile catalytic converters, particularly for gasoline engines. However, as the automotive industry increasingly shifts toward electric vehicles (EVs), palladium demand is expected to face significant changes. South Africa and Russia dominate the global palladium market, with smaller contributions from Canada, the United States, and Zimbabwe.
The outlook for palladium is uncertain, as the growing adoption of electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters, is expected to reduce palladium demand in the automotive sector. Despite this, palladium’s use in electronics, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage may provide alternative demand drivers. By 2029, palladium production may decrease as the automotive industry shifts, but demand from other sectors could help stabilize the market.
Platinum is used in catalytic converters for diesel engines, as well as in jewelry, medical devices, and fuel cell technology. With its ability to withstand high temperatures and resist corrosion, platinum is essential in a variety of industrial applications. However, the rise of electric vehicles and the decreasing demand for diesel-powered cars are expected to affect the demand for platinum.
South Africa remains the dominant producer of platinum, followed by Russia and the United States. While the demand for platinum in the automotive industry may decrease as the shift to electric vehicles continues, platinum’s use in fuel cells could provide a long-term boost to demand. However, the rate of adoption of fuel cell technology remains uncertain, and the overall outlook for platinum will depend on its evolving applications and the pace of technological adoption in sectors like hydrogen energy.
Titanium sponge metal is widely used in the aerospace industry due to its strength-to-weight ratio, making it essential for aircraft and spacecraft. It is also used in medical implants, consumer goods, and chemical processing. China is the largest producer of titanium sponge metal, producing 67% of the world’s output, followed by Japan, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
The titanium sponge metal market is expected to see steady growth, particularly in the aerospace and military sectors, where high-strength, lightweight materials are crucial. China’s dominance in titanium production is expected to continue, but geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, may disrupt supply chains. As a result, countries outside of China may seek to diversify their sources of titanium sponge metal through investments in domestic production and alternative suppliers.
The global demand for minerals like cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium is set to grow significantly through 2029. The rise of electric vehicles, renewable energy, aerospace technologies, and electronics will drive much of this demand. However, the market for these minerals is complex and influenced by geopolitical dynamics, technological advancements, and efforts to make supply chains more sustainable.
Countries like China, South Africa, and Russia will continue to dominate production, but there will be growing efforts from other regions, such as Australia, Canada, and Chile, to expand their capacities. Recycling technologies, alternative mining methods, and environmental concerns will also shape the future of these critical minerals. The way these challenges are addressed will significantly impact the stability and growth of global supply chains for these vital materials.