Former President Donald Trump has made it clear that his vision for the United States extends beyond just trade policy; he wants Canada, or at the very least, its vast reserves of critical minerals. While Trump’s statements about annexing Canada might seem like a joke, his actions suggest a serious strategy centered around economic leverage, resource security, and geopolitical dominance.
Canada has an abundance of critical minerals such as nickel, lithium, and uranium, which are essential for technology, electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and military applications. The U.S. heavily depends on Canada for these resources, importing $83.8 billion CAD worth of critical minerals in 2023 alone. However, Canada’s mining development is notoriously slow due to long permitting processes and a lack of infrastructure in remote areas. This bottleneck prevents the U.S. from securing a steady supply of minerals, making it vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions.
At the same time, China dominates the critical minerals market, controlling between 60% and 80% of global refining and processing capacity. Even Canadian minerals often end up in China for processing before returning to international markets, including the U.S. Trump sees this as a major problem; he wants to reduce U.S. reliance on China and secure a more direct, reliable supply chain through Canada.
Trump’s pressure tactics aim to accelerate Canadian mining by addressing the urgent need for new sources of minerals in the U.S. With the current processes taking anywhere from 5 to 25 years to bring new mines online, the proposed tariffs could prompt Canada to streamline its permitting process and invest in infrastructure, ultimately making its rich mineral resources more accessible to American industries.
Additionally, these tariffs are designed to prevent any potential retaliatory measures from Canada. While Canada has indicated that it may impose tariffs on critical minerals in response, which could negatively affect U.S. industries reliant on these resources, Trump appears confident that Canada will hesitate to follow through. The interconnectedness of both economies makes such retaliation a complicated decision.
Furthermore, the overarching goal is to counter China’s growing influence in the global resources sector. By ensuring that Canadian minerals remain within the U.S. supply chain instead of being exported to China, Trump aims to impede Chinese investment in Canadian mining. This strategy seeks to prevent Beijing from expanding its control over essential global resources and to secure a more advantageous position for the U.S. in the process.
This battle isn’t just about Canada; it’s about who controls the future of the global economy. The U.S. under Trump wants to secure Canadian mineral supplies to weaken China’s grip on the industry. However, Canada’s slow permitting and infrastructure issues pose a problem. If Canada can’t develop its mines fast enough, the U.S. may be forced to keep relying on China for minerals, something Trump wants to avoid at all costs.
The question is: Will Canada comply or push back? Canadian leaders have discussed the need to diversify their trade away from the U.S. to reduce dependence. However, shifting exports to Europe or Asia isn’t easy, and Canadian industries remain deeply tied to American markets.
Trump’s tariffs represent a high-risk strategy aimed at compelling Canada to comply with U.S. demands. If Canada retaliates, the United States could face significant mineral shortages. Nevertheless, Trump appears to be banking on the idea that economic pressure will prompt Canada to accelerate its mining development, ensuring a stable supply for the U.S. Furthermore, the hope is that Canada will refrain from partnering with China in areas related to mineral processing or investment. Ultimately, this approach aims to bolster North American resource independence, thereby reducing reliance on foreign powers.
Trump’s actions make one thing clear: he sees Canada as a crucial piece in the U.S.-China power struggle. The U.S. needs Canada’s minerals, and Trump is using tariffs as leverage to push Canada into becoming a faster, more reliable supplier. His ultimate goal is to ensure Canada’s resources benefit the U.S., not China.
While outright annexation is unlikely, Trump’s economic tactics suggest a different kind of control, forcing Canada to align with U.S. interests through economic pressure, trade policy, and resource dependence. Whether Canada complies or resists remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Trump wants Canada firmly within the U.S. sphere of influence.