Tungsten prices have exploded into the headlines: for example, European ammonium paratungstate (APT) a key tungsten compound is up roughly 30 35% year-to-date. Mainstream reports have focused on China’s export controls (a tit-for-tat response to US tariffs), but industry insiders see a much bigger driver: China is quietly preparing to reopen imports of tungsten scrap. After 2018, China banned nearly all scrap tungsten imports for environmental reasons. Now, a December 25, 2024 MIIT announcement (No.39) reportedly adds tungsten carbide scrap to approved import specs effective July 1, 2025 effectively reauthorizing those scrap flows. Experts note this “raw export control + scrap import liberalization” will be a double-whammy for Western supply: scrap flows to China that were cut off will resume, while Chinese export quotas remain tight.
The scale of tungsten scrap supply is significant, with approximately one-third of global tungsten sourced from recycled materials. This situation is particularly critical given that China has halted new ore extraction while continuing to dominate the scrap market. As a result, recycled scrap has accounted for around 70% of the tungsten supply flow in the Western markets.
Quality and cost play a crucial role as well, since much of the scrap originates from high-grade carbide parts. This recycled tungsten is often more economical per unit of tungsten than mining new ore, making it a vital resource within the industry. Even analysts in China recognize the importance of recycled tungsten, underscoring its value as a major resource.
Furthermore, the dynamics of price arbitrage are set to emerge due to the current high prices of tungsten in China. If any channels for scrap imports to China reopen, it’s likely that Chinese processors will quickly capitalize on the opportunity, rapidly acquiring available scrap and leaving Western smelters at a disadvantage.
The wider implications of this trend have led Chinese economists to describe a "siphon effect," where scrap materials are drawn into China’s closed resource loop. They predict that if China liberalizes its scrap imports while maintaining stringent export restrictions, it could “completely lock out” international competitors, further solidifying its grip on the tungsten market.
Reopening scrap imports will tighten ex-China supply sharply. In effect, Western producers would lose roughly two-thirds of their tungsten feedstock to China’s mills. Even before export curbs, markets were tight: scrap availability had been declining (pushing users to buy mined concentrate instead), and big buyers were already paying up. For example, on the heels of China’s export restrictions, European APT climbed ~30% YTD (around USD 400 450/mtu mid-2025) and hit new highs. With scrap freed up, prices can only go higher: every percentage of scrap absorbed by China is directly removed from Western markets, reinforcing shortages. Even historically, when China quietly tightened raw tungsten quotas in late 2023, an analyst observed “the market has been thrown into disarray” with APT up over 20% in months.
Market skeptics may argue this scrap thesis is speculative if China only partially reopens imports, or Western mines ramp up, prices could stall. But the evidence tilts the other way. China remains ~80% of global production, and nearly all high-purity tungsten refining is domestic. Western mines and policies can’t easily replace the lost supply in the near term. By contrast, scrap is immediately available: as soon as import permits are granted, the flow of used carbide and hardmetal scrap out of Europe, Japan, and the Americas will be a fait accompli. In short, most of the bearish scenarios assume away the scale of scrap flows, whereas the bullish view recognizes that two-thirds of Western tungsten feedstocks could vanish overnight.
Western firms and governments need to act on this storm warning. Tungsten traders and stockpilers should hedge or secure forward contracts now, before scrap reauthorization. Manufacturers and procurement officers should accelerate diversification e.g. qualifying alternate tool materials or dual-sourcing from allied countries (like Almonty’s new Korean & Canadian mines). Recyclers in Europe and North America suddenly hold a weapon: scrap prices may spike on buyer competition but they also risk losing domestic smelting business. They should forge long-term offtakes with Western smelters or governments. Governments, meanwhile, must assess strategic reserves: the Pentagon’s existing effort to eliminate Chinese tungsten by 2027 (and recent DOD grants for new mines) now seems even more urgent.
In short, the market is moving faster than the headlines. Far from a mere footnote, China’s likely reopening of tungsten scrap imports is a game-changer for supply. It will further strip the West of scarce raw material and inject fresh upward momentum into prices. Industry participants ignoring this development do so at their peril; those who prepare by locking in material, boosting recycling, or partnering on new projects can turn a looming crunch into strategic advantage.