The global tungsten market is weathering an unprecedented storm in early 2026, marked by sharp price hikes, persistent supply shortages, and a reorientation of trade flows driven largely by China’s tightening export policies. At the heart of this disruption lies Europe, where market prices for key tungsten products have surged to multi-year highs, yet trade volume has not matched. This “price without volume” paradox has become the defining feature of a volatile industry facing supply shocks from multiple fronts.
As of early February, the European market has seen ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices rocket to $1,300–1,400/mtu at CIF Rotterdam, with the average price landing at $1,350/mtu. This marks a significant $300/mtu jump in just two weeks from late January and a further $325 increase since early January. Similarly, ferrotungsten prices have climbed to $162–172/kg W, up from $145.5/kg W just weeks earlier.
These price surges have been driven primarily by alarmingly low inventories and reactive panic buying. Although actual trade volumes remain limited, an estimated 20 metric tonnes of APT traded at $1,350/mtu last week alone, and the high-priced deals have fueled bullish market sentiment. Offers at key ports such as Rotterdam and Baltimore spiked to as high as $1,400/mtu, although this level has, for now, idled most end users due to cost constraints.
Despite spiraling prices, the European market remains hamstrung by stagnant trade. In the weeks before this aggressive surge, market activity was sluggish, with suppliers offering prices between $990 and $1,050/mtu but encountering slowed purchase activity at higher thresholds. Traders and consumers alike are trapped between rising offer prices driven by raw material shortages and end-user resistance to transacting at such high costs. This growing mismatch between price expectations and trade willingness reflects a key paradox in today’s tungsten market: a sharp disconnect between valuation and reality.
With mine-side supply facing chronic bottlenecks, largely attributable to China’s export controls and delayed deliveries from other producers, the spotlight has now turned to tungsten scrap as a critical alternative feedstock. Prices for tungsten scrap have soared globally, particularly in Asia and Europe.
In India, the FOB price for cemented carbide scrap (W 90–92%) is currently between $92 and $95/kg, with some reports approaching $100/kg. In Europe, traders report that prices for local tungsten scrap have exceeded €75/kg ($82–85/kg), with further increases expected as domestic demand grows alongside constraints on mine-sourced raw materials.
End users face mounting cost pressures, particularly since prices from hard metal manufacturers in Europe have not kept pace with input cost increases. High Asian premiums, meanwhile, have subdued European scrap imports from the region. Indian scrap prices, for instance, are now difficult to justify given the price and payment terms, curbing cross-border trade.
China continues to play an outsized role in global tungsten supply dynamics. Since Beijing initiated its export control policy in April 2025, the country’s APT and intermediate tungsten product exports have essentially collapsed, with official October data showing zero recorded APT shipments. Cumbersome export licensing processes that take up to four months to approve are lengthening delivery timelines and discouraging spot trading.
Moreover, China’s internal demand for tungsten concentrate has surged amid a restructuring of its industry chain, pushing its imports of the raw material up by over 61% year-on-year (January–October 2025). As a result, global mine supply is increasingly channeled toward the Chinese market, with little remaining for buyers in Europe and elsewhere.
This consolidation of supply inside China has had a ripple effect on global pricing. Although China’s domestic prices are climbing steadily, the pace of increases in Europe has far outstripped that of China due to its more severe supply pinch.
With traditional mine sources insufficient to meet global demand, strategic projects outside of China are gaining traction, albeit slowly. Leading the charge is EQ Resources (EQR), whose dual position in Spain and Australia is beginning to reshape the tungsten supply narrative.EQR’s Barruecopardo mine in Spain has increased its resource recovery rate from 40% to nearly 70%, solidifying it as a critical European supply base. Simultaneously, the company’s Mt Carbine mine in Australia has overcome recent engineering challenges and has successfully commenced operations on a high-grade ore vein, with significant output expansion anticipated in 2026.
These Western developments, although promising, remain in their early stages, and industry stakeholders caution that it takes three to five years for new mines to contribute meaningfully to global supply. As such, they provide a medium- to long-term solution rather than immediate relief.
Going forward, the upward momentum in global tungsten prices appears unlikely to subside in the first half of 2026. The combination of scarce mine output, constrained Chinese exports, and growing reliance on scrap for smelting will continue to keep downstream margins under pressure while driving a structural shift in supply chains. Traders and analysts expect scrap tungsten to become not just a secondary feedstock but a primary cost driver over the coming months. This transition has profound implications for metal recyclers, end-users, and national stockpiling strategies.
In the near term, while supply constraints are likely to deter explosive price increases due to buyer resistance, broader trends indicate a gradual convergence of global prices around inflated Chinese benchmarks. Demand gaps in overseas markets remain wide, and so long as China’s dominance in the tungsten trade persists, foreign smelters and fabricators will be compelled to adapt to a new normal characterized by high prices, tight inventories, and increasing reliance on scrap-based production.