Copper stands as one of modern civilization's essential materials, critical for energy infrastructure, construction, technology, and transportation. Ranking only behind iron and aluminum in importance, its widespread use underscores global reliance on this finite resource. However, analysis of global mining rates, market dynamics, and geological reserves points towards a significant shift in copper availability within the coming decades.
Global copper mining is a massive operation that has seen significant production growth in recent years. As of 2023, the total refined copper production reached an impressive 26.6 million tonnes, which marks an increase from 25.3 million tonnes in 2022. This refined copper is derived from both primary and secondary sources, with 22.1 million tonnes coming from newly mined ore and 4.5 million tonnes from recycled materials.
However, a closer look at historical trends reveals a concerning development: there has been a long-term decline in ore grades since the late 19th century. This means that more rock needs to be processed to extract the same amount of copper, leading to higher energy requirements and increased production costs. The average ore grade that is considered economically viable is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices, especially oil, as well as the market price of copper itself.
Adding to the complexity of copper production is the concept of the Hubbert Peak, which has been analyzed using various assessment methods, such as Hubbert curve analysis and systems dynamic modeling known as the COPPER model. These analyses consistently predict that primary copper production from mining will reach its peak around the year 2038, with estimates suggesting it could occur as early as 2030 or as late as 2045. This peak signifies a pivotal moment, indicating that after this point, the rate of extraction from mines is likely to decline irreversibly, primarily due to resource depletion.
The current copper market functions as a free market, shaped by various factors including supply and demand dynamics, production costs, and speculative activities. It is estimated that around 550 million tonnes of copper are presently in use within society. However, looking ahead, significant challenges lie in future supply constraints. As primary copper production is expected to peak and subsequently decline after 2038, meeting the growing global demand will become increasingly difficult. By approximately 2060, it is predicted that a substantial portion of the copper supply necessary for societal use will have to be sourced from recycling existing stocks, often referred to as “urban mining,” instead of relying on new mining efforts.
Historically, recycling has played a vital role in copper supply, contributing about 40-50% between 1890 and 1950. Yet, to effectively address the impending scarcity of copper, recycling rates must see a dramatic increase, with goals of exceeding 85% of total supply becoming essential. This shift is not only driven by economic factors where recycling becomes more cost-effective than mining ultra-low-grade ores but also out of necessity. Achieving these high recycling rates will require focused policy interventions, efficient collection systems, and possibly financial incentives such as deposit schemes to encourage the recycling process.
Determining the total amount of copper that can ever be economically extracted, referred to as Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR), is a complex task. Estimates suggest a convergence around 2,800 million tonnes (Mt) as the most likely URR, taking into account geological availability along with plausible economic and technological conditions. It's important to note that the 2013 estimate by the USGS, which indicated a URR of 3,000 Mt, was based on a geological stock assessment that did not fully consider the feasibility of extraction.
As of the study published in 2014, approximately 800 Mt of this estimated 2,800 Mt had already been extracted. The ongoing global population growth and economic development are accelerating the consumption of the remaining reserves.
Moreover, the concept of "reserves" is not static; it is influenced by fluctuating economic viability thresholds. The definition of what constitutes a mineable reserve heavily depends on the price of copper and the cost of energy. For instance, if oil prices were to rise significantly, it could lead to a dramatic reduction in economically viable reserves, as the processing of lower-grade ores could become prohibitively expensive unless copper prices rise correspondingly. A scenario in which oil prices reach $200 per barrel might require copper prices to increase to anywhere from $25 to $40 per kilogram, or even as high as $100 per kilogram, to maintain the reserves at the estimated 2,800 Mt level.
While substitution with metals like aluminum is feasible for certain applications, it is not a comprehensive solution. Many potential substitutes, such as zinc, chromium, manganese, and iron, also face their own long-term scarcity issues. Although aluminum is more abundant, it cannot fully replace copper in all its functions, nor can it solely compensate for the decline of several other metals.
Moreover, the projected peak in copper production, which is anticipated to occur within approximately 13 to 20 years from April 2025, is considered "short term" when viewed in the context of the decades needed for significant societal and infrastructural changes. To achieve true long-term sustainability, planning horizons of 80 to 100 years or more are essential.
The evidence strongly indicates that the era of easily accessible and abundant copper is drawing to a close. Global primary production is projected to peak within the next two decades, leading to increased reliance on recycling, higher prices, and potential supply constraints. The total recoverable reserves are finite and are being consumed at an accelerating rate. Substitution offers only limited relief. Addressing this challenge requires urgent and significant policy changes focused on maximizing recycling efficiency, managing demand, promoting resource awareness, and adopting a genuinely long-term perspective on resource management that extends far beyond typical political and economic cycles.
Sverdrup, H. U., Ragnarsdottir, K. V., & Koca, D. (2014). On modelling the global copper mining rates, market supply, copper price and the end of copper reserves. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 87, 158-174.