The titanium industry in 2025 has become a study in divergence. High-specification products, tied to military and specialized industrial uses, continue to command premiums and exhibit pricing resilience. At the same time, civilian-oriented segments face weak demand, rising inventories, and intensifying price competition. Recent spot trends in sponge titanium and titanium dioxide underscore the split and hint at how the second half may unfold.
SMM’s late-July update shows that sponge titanium prices have started to soften as civilian demand contracts. On July 28, Grade 0 sponge was quoted at 50,000–53,000 yuan per metric ton, Grade 1 at 48,000–49,000 yuan, and Grade 2 at 47,000–48,000 yuan. Producers of titanium materials that serve traditional end markets such as chemicals and construction report shrinking order books, and competition has intensified into a “rat race” as firms chase a smaller pool of business. The result has been a noticeable increase in available sponge supply just as downstream growth slows, tipping the balance into oversupply and pressuring prices. Even so, leading sponge producers have signaled willingness to cut output, which should provide a floor in the coming weeks and limit the room for further declines if cuts are implemented credibly.
This mid-summer cooling contrasts with the robust performance seen in late June, when sponge titanium benefited from the landing of large overseas orders. Grade 0 material then commanded premiums around 53,500 yuan per metric ton, supported by tight supply conditions and bullish sentiment among traders and producers. While that strength has tempered, the structural supports behind high-grade demand, especially military procurement and select export flows, remain in place.
The split is even clearer in finished titanium materials. Prices for military-grade products such as TA1 and TC4 ingots have held firm, typically changing hands around 59,000–60,000 yuan per metric ton and 67,000–69,000 yuan per metric ton, respectively. Cost support from upstream sponge titanium, combined with steady defense-related orders, has allowed these high-end materials to maintain pricing power. Civilian-oriented materials, by contrast, have seen transaction prices loosen as chemical and construction demand has yet to rebound.
Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) illustrates the civilian side’s challenge. As of July 22, rutile TiO₂ was quoted at roughly 11,500–12,000 yuan per metric ton, anatase around the low-to-mid 12,000s, and chloride-process grades in the 15,200–16,400 yuan per metric ton range, with some reports of a marginal day-on-day dip for chloride grades. Export prices clustered around $1,890–$1,950 per metric ton FOB. The main story is not day-to-day moves but the underlying supply-demand tension: weak downstream consumption has led to visible inventory accumulation. To relieve shipping pressure, some producers have quietly offered lower prices, feeding more intense competition and sporadic price wars. Yet there are cost anchors. Upstream ore suppliers have restricted shipments of raw ore, helping to stabilize titanium ore prices, and sulphuric acid costs have been trending higher, strengthening the cost base. Together, these supports argue for a weak but broadly stable TiO₂ market rather than a steep decline, provided covert discounting does not escalate and cost inputs remain firm.
Conditions in the titanium concentrate mirror the softness in downstream TiO₂. Domestic concentrate with TiO₂ content of 47 percent has been quoted around 2,000–2,150 yuan per metric ton, with 46 percent material near 1,700–1,750 yuan. Seasonal factors and continued weak demand have produced a wait-and-see stance among buyers, low purchase willingness, and stagnant trading. Without a clearer pickup in TiO₂ orders, concentrate prices are likely to remain under pressure.
The roots of this divergence lie in how demand and supply are evolving across segments. On the demand side, military procurement has provided consistent, inelastic support for premium titanium grades. Defense applications require stringent specifications and have limited substitution options, insulating these products from broader economic softness. Export orders for high-grade inputs, particularly sponge titanium, have added a positive demand shock. Civilian sectors, particularly chemicals and construction, remain subdued. This is weighing on orders for commodity-grade materials and producing cautious, inventory-focused purchasing behavior among downstream users.
On the supply side, the effectiveness of production discipline has differed by segment. In TiO₂, producers have expanded output cuts to balance the market, but demand weakness has outpaced supply reductions, leading to persistent inventory burdens. In high-end sponge titanium and specialized materials, selective tightness and capacity constraints have maintained favorable pricing dynamics, even as overall sentiment cooled into late July.
Several indicators will determine how this split evolves through the second half. The first is whether sponge producers follow through on their stated production cuts, which would help stabilize prices after the recent slide. The second is the flow of overseas orders for sponge and high-grade materials; continued international buying would buttress premium segments. Inventory trends across TiO₂ producers and distributors will be equally important, as will the cadence of military procurement in the third and fourth quarters. Finally, any signs of recovery in chemicals and construction would directly alleviate the pressure on civilian-facing grades and could begin closing the gap between premium and basic products.
The near-term outlook is a continuation of the current pattern. Premium segments linked to defense and specialized exports should remain supported and retain pricing power. Sponge titanium appears to have limited downside from late-July levels if announced production cuts are enforced. TiO₂ and concentrate are likely to operate in a weak but range-bound fashion, with cost inputs providing a floor while demand remains lackluster. Convergence between premium and basic segments will depend on a clearer turn in civilian demand and progress in working down inventories. Until those catalysts materialize, 2025’s titanium market will remain defined by its two-track reality: resilience at the high end, and grind at the base.