Indium’s unique chemical properties make it irreplaceable in modern electronics, but it is only present at trace levels in nature, mainly substituting for zinc within sphalerite. No primary indium mines exist because its concentration in ore is far too low for standalone production. Thus, the metal’s global supply is governed by the economics and initiatives of the distinctly larger zinc industry.
Roughly 95% of the world’s refined indium is generated during zinc processing. This structural dependence means indium’s supply is inherently inelastic; rising prices cannot incentivize higher output unless zinc miners choose to boost their much larger, zinc-focused operations. As such, indium’s supply-demand paradigm diverges sharply from other metals, creating a market where supply cannot directly meet surging demand.
Zinc and indium supply chains are geographically entwined. China alone produced 48% of global indium between 2013 and 2016, rising to 66% by 2023. The rest comes mainly from Korea, Canada, and Peru. This concentration closely tracks the growing dominance of Asian zinc mining since the 1990s. China’s control poses a significant bottleneck: its 2023 export bans on gallium and germanium led to price spikes and set a precedent for potential disruption of indium. Thus, besides keeping an eye on zinc production trends, investors must monitor trade actions and export policies, especially from China, to fully understand market risks.
Indium underpins explosive innovation in high-tech industries. Indium tin oxide (ITO), responsible for 55–70% of global indium demand, is a crucial component for transparent electrodes in displays, touchscreens, and solar panels. The semiconductor sector, using indium compounds in advanced chips, 5G infrastructure, and emerging electric vehicle (EV) batteries, continues to see indium as a strategic material. For example, Cornell research points to indium anodes as transformative for EV battery performance, portending even faster demand growth.
Indium's price history highlights a clear decoupling from zinc production, which has remained relatively stable at around 12 to 13 million tonnes since 2015. In 2015, indium prices reached a peak of nearly $700 per kilogram, but this was followed by a sharp decline to $200 per kilogram in 2016, primarily due to the collapse of China’s Fanya Metal Exchange.
Fast forward to 2022, when the closure of Nyrstar’s Auby smelter in France resulted in a significant supply squeeze that drove prices up from $223 per kilogram to over $275 per kilogram by 2023, despite no change in zinc production levels. In the years 2023 and 2024, indium prices experienced further surges of 27% and an additional 23%, showcasing the considerable impact that localized disruptions can have on market prices.
Indium recovery is a technically intensive, often underprioritized process for zinc smelters. When zinc prices drop or input costs like energy spike (as illustrated by the Auby smelter shutdown), indium-rich residues may be neglected or discarded. Many smelters lack the technology or incentive to recover indium, translating to up to 75% of mined indium being lost or unrecovered. Economic thresholds for recovery are high, with recovery generally viable above $100/kg, but actual supply remains inflexible even at much higher prices.
Secondary (recycled) indium now supplies 25–31% of global demand, mainly from manufacturing waste (new scrap) rather than post-consumer (old) electronics. Japan and Korea are leaders in closed-loop recycling, but worldwide, inefficiencies persist: recovery rates often hover between 60% and 75%. Regulatory and logistical barriers prevent a robust, global “old scrap” market from emerging, and secondary sources cannot yet compensate for primary supply bottlenecks.
Research into alternatives to indium tin oxide (ITO) has been driven by supply constraints and price volatility. One promising avenue is the development of carbon nanotube (CNT) coatings, which are flexible and transparent. However, these coatings face challenges related to large-scale production. Another alternative is graphene, known for its excellent conductivity and flexibility, but its widespread adoption remains hindered by high costs and complex manufacturing processes.
Zinc oxide (ZnO) nanopowders present a more cost-effective option; however, they often do not meet the electrical performance standards required for certain applications. Additionally, conductive polymers, such as PEDOT, and silver nanowires show potential in specific use cases but currently cannot replicate the universal performance of ITO.
While none of these alternatives pose an immediate threat to ITO’s dominance, the exploration of these innovations underscores the industry's commitment to reducing dependence on indium, driven by the metal's fragile supply situation.
The zinc-indium relationship defines one of the world’s most fragile and intriguing metal supply chains. Indium’s market is governed less by the broad fortunes of zinc than by the complex interplay of byproduct economics, recovery technology, and geopolitics. As the global energy transition accelerates demand for advanced electronics and clean energy solutions, these fragilities risk amplifying both supply gaps and price volatility. For companies and stakeholders navigating this marketplace, robust recycling and secondary supply strategies are increasingly vital.
Quest Metals is dedicated to fortifying indium’s supply chain resilience. As a leader in recycling, Quest Metals purchases scrap metal, unlocking value from byproducts and end-of-life materials, and provides reliable, sustainable sources of critical minor metals, including indium. If you have metal scrap to sell or wish to discuss responsible recycling solutions for your business, contact Quest Metals, your trusted partner in building a sustainable materials future.