At the heart of tungsten’s price explosion lies a calculated series of export restrictions implemented by China, which controls over 80% of global tungsten output and over half of known reserves. Beginning with stepped-up export licensing in February 2025 and culminating in the publication of the 2026 Catalogue of Dual-Use Items in January 2026, Beijing has transformed its dominance of the tungsten supply chain into a geopolitical lever.
New export requirements, including detailed end-user and use-case documentation, have slowed international flows and restricted exports to unfriendly jurisdictions. The resulting scarcity has created a two-tiered global tungsten market: one operating under China’s patronage, and another scrambling to source non-Chinese supply. For many veteran analysts, this scenario echoes the rare-earth supply crisis of 2010, but with a more surgical, policy-driven execution.
Compounding the export controls is a critical limitation on domestic supply. China has deliberately reduced tungsten mining quotas for three consecutive years, each by around 6%, citing environmental rectification and declining ore grades. Simultaneously, many mines in major production areas such as Jiangxi and Hunan have either shut down for maintenance or ceased operations entirely due to increased enforcement of safety and environmental laws.
The resulting contraction has triggered soaring prices all along the tungsten industrial chain. As of mid-January 2026, domestic prices for 65% wolframite and scheelite concentrates exceed RMB 500,000 ($72,000 usd) per ton, a staggering 216% year-on-year increase. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices are now quoted above RMB 750,000($100,000 USD) per ton in China and above $1,100/mtu in Europe. Tungsten powder critical in electronics and defense is fetching more than RMB 1.2 million (172,000$) per ton. Each link of the chain, from upstream miners to downstream toolmakers and semiconductor firms, is feeling both the pinch of cost inflation and the existential weight of constrained access.
While some industry voices argue that the current tungsten rally includes speculative elements, the overarching demand story is one of long-term structural evolution. Critical industries, such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and increasingly, defense, are fueling relentless demand for high-grade tungsten products.
In microelectronics, the shift toward sub-2nm chips has heightened demand for tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆), a specialty gas used to form electrical connections in integrated circuits. Integrated device manufacturers are willing to pay premiums, as tungsten’s cost is minor relative to the value of finished chips. Meanwhile, the defense industry is increasingly reliant on tungsten’s extreme hardness for kinetic energy munitions, hypersonic weapons, and guided missile systems. Even in green tech, tungsten finds application in high-efficiency solar cells and advanced battery technology.
These “rigid” demand verticals make tungsten unlike previous boom-bust metals. As one European commodity strategist noted, “You can’t build a hypersonic glide vehicle or AI chip without tungsten. There’s no substitute.”
The Western world’s reaction has been swift. In 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense placed tungsten on its critical minerals list and initiated strategic stockpiling under the Defense Production Act. The Pentagon is working with allied nations like South Korea, Portugal, and Australia to sidestep China-dependent supply chains. Parallel efforts include equity-based offtake agreements with junior miners such as Almonty Industries (Canada/South Korea) and EQ Resources (Australia), who are among the few poised to offer “clean” tungsten.
European nations, particularly Germany and France, have begun their own assessments of strategic vulnerabilities, initiating dual-use materials task forces to advise on semiconductor and defense material procurement. However, establishing new supply chains is neither quick nor easy. “We’re looking at a 3–5 year delay before non-Chinese supply can sustainably enter the market,” said a tungsten trader familiar with exploration timelines.
While foreign players scramble, China is using this moment to restructure its internal tungsten industry. Shifting away from raw material exports, Chinese producers are climbing the value-added ladder, leaning into refined products such as tungsten carbide, high-purity APT, and even advanced chipmaking compounds. Vertically integrated firms such as CMOC Group (HKEX: 03993) and China Tungsten High-Tech (SZSE: 000657) have seen profit margins spike as they command higher downstream prices and fill supply voids in Asia and Europe.
Domestic mining efficiency has declined, inventories are low, and demand from key industries, such as cemented carbide tools, remains fragile amid seasonal lulls. Yet the expectation of a post–Lunar New Year manufacturing rebound is keeping market sentiment highly bullish. According to Chinese market intelligence, the price gap between high-grade and mid/low-grade tungsten concentrate has already widened by RMB 5,000 ($700) per ton, indicating a scarcity of demand at the top end.
Taken together, the movements in tungsten pricing, supply structuring, and consumption suggest a market that has undergone permanent transformation. Price levels once deemed speculative are now the new normal, with minimal prospect of significant retraction in the near term. Unlike most commodity cycles, which peak and fall in line with industrial GDP, tungsten is now tethered to strategic imperatives: defense readiness, AI supremacy, and national energy security.
This reality introduces profound questions for manufacturers and policy planners. Should tungsten be viewed as a tradable raw material, or as a geostrategic resource akin to oil or enriched uranium? Judging by the current response from industry and governments alike, the answer may be the latter.
The remarkable rise in tungsten prices is more than market dynamics; it reflects shifting global priorities. From aerospace engineers to political strategists, the understanding is growing: control over tungsten may determine not just profitability, but security and sovereignty.
As we move deeper into 2026, the “hardest metal” is emerging as the hardest question in global economic planning. Those who fail to align with the new tungsten reality risk being left behind not just technologically, but strategically.