In a move that underscores the precarious nature of critical mineral supply chains, China announced new export restrictions on several strategic metals, even as it reached a temporary truce with the United States over rare earths. While former President Donald Trump hailed the trade agreement with Beijing as a breakthrough that removed export limitations on rare earth elements (REEs), China is now tightening the screws on other essential commodities such as silver, antimony, and tungsten.
The announcement, published on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), stated that the new controls, effective for the 2026–2027 period, are part of a broader initiative to “protect resources and the environment.” These claims, however, are being met with considerable skepticism by analysts and policymakers alike, who argue that Beijing is using environmental concerns as a smokescreen to exert strategic and economic leverage over the West, particularly the United States.
The U.S.–China summit held in South Korea last month culminated in an agreement to pause the latest round of Chinese rare earth export restrictions for one year. These measures, effective October 9, would have expanded licensing requirements not only for raw materials but also for the technologies essential to refining rare-earth elements and producing high-performance magnets. The U.S. hailed this as a diplomatic win, with Trump calling the rare earths issue "settled." However, the relief is far from comprehensive.
Key restrictions imposed by China in April 2025, which cover seven high-demand rare earths, including the magnet-critical element dysprosium, remain in full effect. Despite U.S. claims that China would eliminate these controls, Beijing has not confirmed such a rollback. Instead, comments from officials in the rare earth industry in Inner Mongolia suggest that the earlier rules continue to be enforced, casting doubt on the durability of the latest agreement.
These unresolved controls have already wreaked havoc on American manufacturing. The April restrictions led to a 59% drop in rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. that month, causing automakers like Ford to suspend production at several factories. Although exports partially recovered in September, they remained down 30% year-over-year.
While much attention has focused on rare earths, China's latest salvo comes in the form of newly announced restrictions on silver, antimony, and tungsten materials equally vital to modern industrial applications. Tungsten, for example, is crucial in aerospace, electronics, and military manufacturing due to its high melting point and density. From January to September 2025, China's tungsten exports dropped by 13.75% compared to the same period in 2024. This is no small matter, as China accounted for over 80% of global tungsten production in 2023, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Antimony is a critical component in flame retardants and semiconductors, while silver is indispensable in electronics, solar panels, and defense systems. By throttling exports of these materials, Beijing potentially creates new chokepoints in global supply chains, just as the U.S. believed it had secured breathing room on rare earths.
The stated rationale for these new controls, environmental protection, rings hollow to many observers. China’s dominance in rare earth refining was built largely on lax environmental oversight and the willingness to accept ecological degradation as collateral damage for industrial growth. The prime example is the Bayan Obo mine in Inner Mongolia, the world’s largest rare earth mine, which has reportedly produced over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium as a byproduct.
A tailings pond near the mine has been leaching toxic sludge into groundwater at a rate of 20–30 meters per year, with the threat of contamination of the Yellow River, a key drinking water source, growing ever more urgent. As noted in the Harvard International Review, it was precisely China's loose environmental regulations and expendable labor force that allowed it to undercut international competition and dominate the rare earth market in the first place.
These latest maneuvers are widely seen as part of China's broader geoeconomic strategy, trading short-term concessions (like the one-year rare earth reprieve) for long-term control over critical supply chains. In doing so, Beijing doubles down on its role as a gatekeeper of commodities essential for high technology, renewable energy, and defense systems. As trade tensions escalate into what some are calling the Second World Trade War, the U.S. finds itself caught in a high-stakes game of export whack-a-mole. It gained a reprieve on one front, rare earths, but faces new constraints on others. Analysts predict this tit-for-tat cycle will continue until the U.S. achieves true resource independence, a goal blocked by its own environmental and political constraints.
Unless the United States can dramatically scale up domestic production of these key metals, it will remain vulnerable to supply shocks and strategic manipulation. Developing domestic mineral resources faces its own hurdles, particularly environmental regulations and the high costs of safely processing these often-toxic materials. The Biden administration and future policymakers will need to consider substantial investments, possibly in partnership with private industry, to foster a secure and sustainable critical minerals supply chain.
Some speculative thinkers have even suggested far-fetched solutions such as launching toxic byproducts into space. More realistically, cultivating relationships with alternative suppliers such as Canada, Australia, and African nations could offer some relief, albeit not without geopolitical risk and substantial lead times. For now, investors may look to capitalize on this new phase of resource nationalism. Stocks of domestic mining companies could surge as Washington scrambles to reduce dependence on Chinese exports. However, without a comprehensive and forward-looking resource strategy, the U.S. industrial engine remains reliant on the whims of its greatest strategic rival.
The latest export restrictions by China on silver, antimony, and tungsten reveal that America’s win on rare earths may be more symbolic than strategic. Even as Trump declared victory, Beijing continued refining a multi-pronged leverage strategy, exploiting global supply chain dependencies to its benefit. If the United States hopes to break free from this cycle and reclaim industrial sovereignty, it must embrace a bold, coordinated effort of environmentally responsible mining at home, diversified supply chains abroad, and innovation-driven solutions for material efficiency. Until then, China holds the cards and the critical minerals.