China, historically the world's dominant producer and exporter of antimony, has strategically tightened its control over this critical mineral, leading to profound disruptions across global industries. Antimony is essential for a wide array of applications, including flame retardants, batteries, semiconductors, and crucial defense components such as munitions and night-vision equipment. Beijing's actions, framed under the guise of national security and interests, have transformed antimony from a commodity into a geopolitical tool.
The imposition of export controls began with an announcement on August 14, 2024, followed by the requirement for dual-use export licenses for antimony and its products, effective September 15, 2024. These measures encompass various stages of the supply chain, from raw materials and refined metal to high-purity oxides. By December 3, 2024, China escalated these restrictions, announcing a prohibition on the export of dual-use items, including antimony, to U.S. military users or for military purposes, effectively banning sales to the U.S. defense sector. This was part of a broader trend, following similar controls implemented throughout 2023 on materials like graphite, germanium, gallium, and rare earth processing methods.
China's influence over the antimony market is substantial, accounting for approximately 44% of global total exports of unwrought antimony and powders between 2019 and 2023. In 2023, China's antimony ore production represented 48% of the world's total. While China's overall production has steadily decreased from 100,000 tonnes in 2000 to 40,000 tonnes in 2024 (out of a global total of 83,000 tonnes), its dominance in refining and processing remains significant.
The immediate consequence of these controls has been an unprecedented surge in antimony prices and severe market disruptions. The price of antimony metal dramatically increased from $1,400 per metric ton in July to $38,000 per metric ton in September 2024, a staggering 2,600% increase. By early 2025, prices reached $51,500 per metric ton, with some reports indicating prices as high as $57,000 to $60,000 per metric ton in Rotterdam by mid-2025. This marks the "sharpest price rally ever recorded" in the antimony market since FastMarkets began tracking prices in the 1980s.
This situation has created a stark pricing divide between domestic Chinese and international markets. For instance, while international prices soared, the price of SMM No. 1 antimony ingot in China, after an initial surge, saw a pullback, stabilizing around 185,000-188,000 yuan/mt by July 2025. This divergence suggests that Chinese domestic
buyers face lower costs compared to international manufacturers, who are significantly disadvantaged. The extreme price increases and the necessity for force majeure declarations are direct economic consequences of this strategic leverage, compelling Western nations to either pay exorbitant premiums, absorb massive costs, or invest heavily in costly, long-term domestic alternatives, thereby undermining their industrial and military competitiveness. This deliberate manipulation of supply for strategic advantage underscores the "weaponization" of critical minerals, imposing substantial economic and operational burdens on dependent nations.
The Chinese export controls have created a significant global supply crunch, with critically low regional inventories, particularly in Europe, prompting a surge of inquiries for material. This situation has been exacerbated by China's decreasing production and rising domestic demand, leading it to export less and import more to cover its own needs. For instance, China's antimony metal exports fell by 52% from 2022 to 2023, totaling 5,240 tonnes.
The United States faces a particularly acute challenge due to its heavy reliance on Chinese antimony. China supplies 44% of U.S. imports of antimony oxides, which are crucial for flame retardants, catalysts, and electronics. This contrasts sharply with the European Union, where China accounts for only 5% of antimony oxide imports, suggesting limited direct exposure for the EU to Chinese export restrictions on this specific product. The U.S. meets 18% of its antimony demand through recycling lead-acid batteries but is otherwise heavily import-reliant, with China historically supplying 63% of its needs.
The practical implications of these restrictions are evident in incidents such as the detention of a 55-metric-ton shipment of Australian-mined antimony destined for a U.S. Antimony Corporation smelter in Mexico. This shipment was blocked at the Chinese port of Ningbo, a previously routine practice, sat for three months, and was eventually returned with broken seals and no clear explanation. This event vividly illustrates China's willingness to disrupt supply chains and exert leverage, even on materials not directly originating from China, by controlling transit points. Such actions create significant uncertainty for international traders, with some companies finding the requirement to notify authorities of the final end-user and application too sensitive or unfeasible to provide.
Despite these official restrictions, enforcement has proven challenging. U.S. buyers have found ways to circumvent China's export ban by rerouting shipments through intermediary countries like Thailand and Mexico. U.S. customs data indicates a dramatic spike in imports from these nations, despite their limited domestic production, suggesting the minerals still originate from China. Chinese subsidiaries, such as Thai Unipet Industries, have played a key role in facilitating these indirect shipments. While China has acknowledged foreign collusion and launched anti-smuggling efforts, enforcement has been weak due to loopholes and the ingenuity of Chinese firms. U.S. law does not prohibit such indirect imports, allowing buyers to legally exploit these gaps.
China's strategic imposition of antimony export controls, driven by both geopolitical objectives and domestic resource management, has profoundly disrupted the global market, leading to unprecedented price spikes, supply volatility, and operational challenges across defense, electronics, and energy sectors. This has exposed critical vulnerabilities in global supply chains heavily reliant on a single dominant source. The weaponization of critical minerals by China has imposed significant economic and operational costs on dependent nations, compelling a strategic re-evaluation of supply chain resilience. Moreover, the accelerating demand from the solar and military sectors has fundamentally reshaped the antimony market, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and creating a structural deficit.
The current antimony crisis underscores the growing urgency for robust supply chain resilience in critical minerals. Geopolitical shifts and export restrictions from dominant producers highlight the inherent vulnerabilities of traditional linear supply models.
For industries heavily reliant on antimony and other critical minerals, partnering with recyclers like Quest Metals is no longer merely an environmental consideration but a strategic imperative. Embracing circular supply models, strengthened through advanced recycling, resource diversification, and strategic partnerships, will define the next era of critical commodity security. This proactive approach ensures operational continuity, cost stability, and national economic resilience in a rapidly changing global landscape.