The global antimony market is undergoing a period of robust expansion, characterized by diverse valuations and growth projections depending on the scope of analysis. In 2023, the global antimony market was valued at USD 1.01 billion, with an anticipated increase to USD 1.08 billion in 2024. Concurrently, other assessments indicate a significantly larger market, reporting a surge to USD 7.2 billion in 2024, reflecting the total revenues of producers and importers, excluding downstream logistics and retail margins. The U.S. antimony market, as a specific regional segment, was estimated at USD 244.8 million in 2023.
Looking ahead, the global market is projected to grow from USD 1.08 billion in 2024 to USD 1.78 billion by 2032, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.5% during this forecast period. Broader market research forecasts anticipate an even more substantial expansion, with projections reaching USD 6.54 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 6.9%. Another independent forecast predicts a global market size of USD 3.70 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 6.1%. Regionally, the U.S. antimony market is expected to reach USD 550 million by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 6.682%. Specifically for antimony oxides in the U.S., market volume is projected to reach 26K tons and market value to USD 217 million by 2035, with CAGRs of +1.5% and +3.0% respectively.
China has historically held an unparalleled position in the global antimony market, serving as the dominant producer for over two decades. Between 2011 and 2015, China accounted for an estimated 75-83% of the global raw antimony supply. While this share saw a decline to approximately 53% by 2020, and was estimated at 48% of world mine production in 2022, China continues to exert significant influence. Beyond raw material extraction, China also controls the majority of antimony processing facilities globally. This dual dominance makes China the leading global producer of antimony metal and oxides, the primary importer of antimony contained in ore and concentrates, and the largest exporter of refined antimony products.
The most impactful recent development has been China's implementation of stringent export restrictions on antimony. On August 14, 2024, China announced that, effective September 15, 2024, companies would require licenses to export six antimony-related products, including antimony ore, antimony metals, antimony oxide, and gold-antimony smelting and separation technologies. This was followed by a more definitive action in December 2024, when China banned all exports of antimony to the United States. These measures are explicitly stated to safeguard national security and fulfill non-proliferation obligations. The immediate effect of these restrictions was a near doubling of antimony metal prices. These actions are widely perceived as a deliberate strategy to weaponize mineral insecurity, highlighting the critical dependence of many nations on Chinese supply.
Concurrent with these export controls, China's environmental policies have also played a significant role in shaping global supply. The decline in China's global market share and overall antimony production volume is partly attributed to a sustained clampdown on illegal mining and more rigorous enforcement of environmental protections, which began in the early 2000s. This has led to a drastic reduction in the number of legally operating antimony firms in China, from around 400 to approximately 16. Furthermore, lower domestic antimony mine production is also a result of declining ore grades and reserves.
The strategic intent behind China's export controls and environmental policies is a crucial aspect of understanding the global antimony market. These actions are not merely isolated regulatory adjustments but appear to be a deliberate geopolitical strategy designed to secure national security interests and exert leverage over countries heavily reliant on China's supply. The environmental crackdowns, while ostensibly aimed at domestic ecological protection, have the secondary effect of tightening global supply and driving up prices, thereby further consolidating China's influential position in the market. This dual approach allows China to control both the volume and the value of antimony in the global market.
Since 2015, both Russia and Tajikistan have significantly increased their antimony production, with Russia producing 139,000 tons and Tajikistan 72,000 tons in 2024. However, Russia's potential as a reliable alternative supplier for Western nations is hindered by Western sanctions and its suspension of antimony exports to these countries.
In Australia, Mandalay Resources operates the Costerfield gold-antimony mine, which is currently the sole producer of antimony in the country. Additionally, Larvotto Resources is progressing with its Hillgrove gold-antimony project, which is expected to produce around 5,100 metric tons of antimony annually, potentially accounting for nearly 7% of global demand. Other companies in Australia, such as Nagambie Resources and Southern Cross Gold, are also in the process of developing gold-antimony projects.
Within the United States, the Stibnite Gold Project by Perpetua Resources in Idaho stands out as the only near-term prospect for domestic antimony production. This project is projected to meet approximately 35% of U.S. demand during its first six years of operation and has received significant government backing, including funding from the U.S. Department of Defense. United States Antimony Corp (USAC) operates the only notable antimony smelter in the country and is exploring options to process materials from Perpetua's project. Other initiatives in the U.S. include Military Metals' acquisition of the Last Chance antimony-gold property in Nevada, as well as American Antimony Corporation's (Xtra Energy) confirmation of a high-grade antimony-gold dike system at its Arrance Mine.
Canada is also making strides in the antimony sector, with New Age Metals recently staking gold-antimony properties to enhance North American supply chains and address potential gaps left by Chinese export restrictions. Other Canadian companies, like Churchill Resources, Maxus Mining, and Azimut Exploration, are also engaged in exploring antimony resources.
Global defense spending has seen an unprecedented surge, directly correlating with an amplified demand for critical minerals like antimony. In 2024, global defense spending reached an estimated USD 2.46 trillion, marking a significant 7.4% real-terms increase. This upward trend is projected to continue into 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide. Major global powers are committing substantial resources to defense; for instance, the European Union has announced an €800 billion defense fund, Germany plans to invest US$1 trillion in defense and infrastructure, China intends to boost its defense spending by 7.2%, Russia is increasing its national defense spending to 6.3% of GDP in 2025, and the UK has committed to raising its defense expenditure to 2.5% by 2027. This extensive rearmament cycle has created severe supply chain constraints, particularly for critical minerals that are essential for military applications, with antimony being a prime example.
Antimony's designation as a critical mineral for national security is well-established across various jurisdictions, including the United States and Canada. Its unique properties make it indispensable for a range of defense technologies. It is used to harden lead in ammunition, enhance the penetration capacity of armor-piercing rounds, and is a key component in night-vision goggles, infrared sensors, and explosives. The ongoing conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, have directly translated into increased demand for ammunition and other defense technologies, further straining antimony supply chains.
The direct link between surging defense spending and antimony demand, coupled with its classification as a critical mineral, creates a strong policy-driven tailwind for antimony projects in politically stable jurisdictions. This provides a compelling justification for strategic investments and government support that extends beyond purely commercial metrics. Governments are actively accelerating antimony projects through subsidies and export controls, recognizing the material's strategic importance. For instance, the U.S. Department of Defense has provided significant funding and support to Perpetua Resources' Stibnite project, specifically for antimony processing and advancing construction readiness. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act are examples of legislative initiatives providing grants for domestic antimony refining infrastructure. This indicates that governments and industries seeking stable supply chains are actively looking to partner with companies that can provide long-term supply agreements for critical minerals like antimony.
The global antimony market is at an inflection point marked by tightening Chinese export controls, rising geopolitical tensions, and a sustained surge in defense-driven demand. Forecasts consistently point to multi-billion-dollar valuations and steady 6–7% CAGR growth over the next decade, underscoring both the scarcity and strategic value of antimony. With China’s dominance in mining and processing now weaponized as a geopolitical lever, governments and industries are urgently diversifying supply chains toward stable, allied jurisdictions.
In this evolving landscape, Quest Metals is uniquely positioned to emerge as a critical link in securing North America’s and allied nations’ antimony needs. By aligning with government-backed initiatives, targeting vertically integrated operations, and establishing offtake agreements with defense and technology partners, Quest Metals can capture premium pricing and long-term contracts. The company’s focus on reliable, sustainable, and strategically located resources directly answers the market’s most pressing concerns: supply security, ESG compliance, and geopolitical resilience.
As the world races to rearm and modernize its defense and critical infrastructure, the demand for antimony is no longer just a commercial opportunity; it's a matter of national security. Quest Metals stands ready to meet that challenge, transforming market volatility into lasting shareholder value and strategic global influence.